The Russia-US summit could reshape the Ukraine war and leave Europe watching from the sidelines

On Friday, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump will meet in Alaska. This will be the first full-scale Russia-US summit since June 2021 in Geneva, and the first official visit by a Russian president to American soil since Dmitry Medvedev's trip in 2010 at the height of the "reset."

It will also be the first time the leaders of Russia and the US have met in Alaska, the closest US state to Russia, separated only by the narrow Bering Strait, and once part of the Russian Empire. The symbolism is obvious: as far as possible from Ukraine and Western Europe, but as close as possible to Russia. And neither Zelensky nor the EU's top brass will be in the room.

The message could not be clearer - Moscow and Washington will make the key decisions on Ukraine, then inform others later. As Trump has said, "they hold all the cards."

From Geneva to Alaska: A shift in tone

The Alaska summit marks a sharp departure from the Biden years, when even the idea of such a meeting was unthinkable and Washington's priority was isolating Russia. Now, not only will Putin travel to Alaska, but Trump is already planning a return visit to Russia.

Moderate optimism surrounds the meeting. Summits of this type are rarely held "just to talk"; they usually cap a long process of behind-the-scenes negotiations. The idea for this one emerged after three hours of talks in Moscow on August 6 between Putin and Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff. Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov described Washington's offer as "very acceptable." That suggests Putin and Trump will arrive in Alaska with a preliminary deal - or at least a framework for a truce - already in place.

Why Trump needs this

Trump has good reason to want the summit to succeed. His effort to squeeze Moscow by pushing China and India to stop buying Russian oil has backfired badly. Far from isolating Russia, it triggered the worst US-India crisis in 25 years and drove New Delhi even closer to Moscow. It also encouraged a thaw between India and China, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi now set to attend the SCO summit in Tianjin.

BRICS, which Trump has openly vowed to weaken, has only grown more cohesive. The Alaska summit is Trump's chance to escape the trap he built for himself - trying to pressure Moscow through Beijing and New Delhi - and to show results on Ukraine that he can sell as a diplomatic victory.

Why Russia does too

For Moscow, a successful summit would be a powerful demonstration that talk of "isolation" is obsolete - even in the West. It would cement Russia's standing with the "global majority" and highlight Western Europe's diminished influence. The transatlantic split would widen, weakening Brussels' claim to be Russia's toughest opponent.

Most importantly, Washington today has little real leverage over Russia, especially on Ukraine. If the summit yields a joint Russian-American vision for a truce or settlement, it will inevitably reflect Moscow's position more than Kiev's or Brussels'. And if the Western Europeans try to derail it, the US could pull the plug on all aid to Ukraine - including intelligence support - accelerating Kiev's defeat.

Resistance at home and abroad

Not everyone in Russia is cheering. Many prominent "Z"-aligned war correspondents see the war as unfinished and oppose any truce. But they have been asked to stick to the official line. If the Alaska meeting produces a deal, they will be expected to back it - or at least use "cooling" language for their audiences. The Kremlin is betting it can manage this dissent.

Western Europe, for its part, will be watching from the sidelines. Its leaders are "scrambling" for scraps of information via secondary channels. The optics will underline a humiliating reality: for the first time in almost a century, decisions about Europe's security will be made without the likes of Italy, France and Germany in the room.

Beyond Ukraine

The location hints at other agenda items. Arctic economic cooperation, largely frozen since 2014, could be revived. Both sides stand to gain from joint development in the far north, and a deal here would be politically symbolic - proof that the two countries can work together despite the baggage of the last decade.

Arms control will also be on the table. Moscow's recent decision to end its unilateral moratorium on deploying intermediate-range missiles was almost certainly timed to influence the talks. Strategic stability after the New START Treaty expires in February 2026 will be a central concern.

The stakes

If Alaska delivers, it could reshape the conflict in Ukraine and the broader Russia-US relationship. A joint settlement plan would marginalize Kiev and Brussels, shift the diplomatic center of gravity back to Moscow and Washington, and reopen channels for cooperation on global issues - from the Arctic to arms control.

If it fails - if Trump bends to last-minute EU pressure - Moscow will continue fighting, confident that US involvement will fade. Either way, Russia's position is stronger than it was two years ago.

What's different now is that the two powers with "all the cards" are finally back at the same table - and Western Europe is on the outside looking in.

(RT.com)