The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecast for Bulgaria's economic growth, predicting a slowdown to 2.5% in 2025, down from 2.8% in the previous year. This forecast is outlined in the spring edition of the IMF's "World Economic Outlook," titled "Policy Uncertainty Tests Global Resilience."

This projection comes amid a global economic slowdown, with the IMF reducing its global growth estimate to 2.8%, down from 3.3% in January. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva noted this shift but also reassured that she does not foresee a global recession. The IMF's forecast for the eurozone is even lower, predicting GDP growth of just 1.0%, down from the previously expected 1.4%, while the EU's growth is expected to decelerate to 1.2%.

Regarding inflation, Bulgaria's rate is expected to rise to 3.7% in 2025, up from 2.6% in 2024. This is an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous forecast. On a positive note, the IMF projects a slight decline in Bulgaria's unemployment rate, anticipating it will fall to 4.1% this year, compared to 4.2% in 2024.

For the first time, the IMF has provided estimates for Bulgaria's economy in 2026, forecasting GDP growth to accelerate slightly to 2.7%, inflation to moderate to 2.3%, and unemployment to remain stable at 4.1%.

In contrast to the IMF's more conservative growth forecast, Bulgaria's National Bank Governor Dimitar Radev presented an updated projection, maintaining a 2.8% growth rate for 2025, with a temporary slowdown to 2.2% expected in 2026. The key drivers of Bulgaria's economic growth are expected to be private consumption, government investment, and net exports, with varying contributions over the years.

In line with the National Bank's outlook, the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance's medium-term budget forecast for 2025-2028 also anticipates GDP growth of 2.8% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026. Meanwhile, Fitch, a major rating agency, has provided a more optimistic view, projecting a 3.1% growth in Bulgaria's economy for 2025.